Methodology

How to read the colors

Three colors, three meanings — fixed on every screen, and colorblind-safe by default (no red/green axis anywhere).

• The machine found something

  Chartreuse marks statistical findings — signals, clusters, verdicts. Never decoration (we allow ourselves exactly one brand moment, in the homepage hero).

• You can act on it

  Green text means interactive — links, buttons, the active page. It never encodes data.

• Money in, money out

  Cobalt = buys, vermilion = sells — always with a written label, never color alone.

The signals

Cluster buy / sellCluster

3 or more distinct insiders trading the same company in the same direction within a 90-day window. Cluster purchases are among the historically strongest insider signals.

Unusual size (z-score)Unusual size

The transaction's USD value is at least 2 standard deviations above that insider's own trailing history (up to 20 prior same-direction transactions; requires at least 3).

First buy after 12 monthsFirst in 12mo

The insider's first open-market purchase after at least 12 months without buying — a re-entry signal.

Routine vs informative

Buys recurring at near-fixed intervals (coefficient of variation ≤ 0.25 across intervals) are flagged routine — typically plan-driven and less informative.

Forward returns & alpha

Returns measured 21/63/126/252 trading days after the filing, from adjusted closes; alpha is the simple excess return vs the S&P 500 (SPY). Partially matured windows are marked as such.

Track record (win / hit rate)

Per insider, over their open-market buys (minimum 5): win rate = share of buys with positive forward return; hit rate = share with positive alpha; plus median returns per horizon.